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Who will win this time?

[Posted on : 2018-10-30 by Walije Ibraham] United States elections for the House of Representatives is to be held this November 2018. How do you think that who will be the winner this time?

The Persistence of Stormy Daniels[1]

[Posted on : 2018-08-24 by Fredrick Lail] It was a rough week for President Trump.

Michael D. Cohen, his former lawyer and longtime fixer, admitted that he'd paid $130,000 in hush money to the pornographic film star Stormy Daniels - real name Stephanie Clifford - at the direction of Mr. Trump for the principal purpose of influencing the election.

It's a saga that has been unfolding erratically since January, with admissions, denials and conflicting accounts.

But a central theme to this case has not wavered amid the blithering: It is about how the most powerful person on the planet treats women. And it is about how Ms. Clifford, a woman who would be easy to cast aside as not credible, has remained persistent and vocal - despite repeated attempts from the Trump camp to diminish and silence her.

Balderson Wins Special Election for Ohio House Seat[2]

[Posted on : 2018-08-24 by Michal Richard] Republicans succeeded in holding on to a traditionally safe congressional district in Ohio on Friday when State Senator Troy Balderson eked out a narrow victory over a Democratic challenger, Danny O‘Connor, according to The Associated Press, in a special election whose result was too close to call for nearly three weeks. Mr. Balderson will hold the seat for just over two months before he faces Mr. O‘Connor again in the general election in November.

Party leaders celebrated Mr. Balderson‘s win, but the nail-biting result - and the prospect of repeating the race so soon - amplified Republican anxieties about the midterm elections, when they must contend with demoralized centrist Republicans, popular unease with the Trump administration and energized Democrats eager to retake control of the House.

Prediction model for America's mid-term elections[3]

[Posted on : 2018-08-24 by Margrete Williams] ON NOVEMBER 6th 2018 the United States will hold elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress. These are contested every two years, both alongside the presidential race and in mid-term elections. (There will also be 35 seats up for grabs in the Senate, the upper chamber, which holds elections every two years for about a third of its six-year positions.) The Economist has developed a statistical model for the House, to predict the results of every individual race and the battle for a majority. We will publish updates every day until the election at economist.com/midterms. For readers curious to understand how we produce these estimates, our methodology is outlined below.

The Economist‘s model of the contest for the House of Representatives proceeds from two basic premises. The first is that, when facing an uncertain future, virtually every scenario has some chance of occurring, and highly unlikely events can be particularly important. So accurately modelling the shape of all points on a probability distribution-particularly the tails that represent long-shot scenarios-can often be more important than getting the average right.

References :

[1] - Sorry, not provided

[2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/us/politics/stormy-daniels-cohen-donald-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics

[3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/us/politics/troy-balderson-ohio.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics

[4] - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/05/24/introducing-our-prediction-model-for-americas-mid-term-elections

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